Paper Trading
// Prediction Market Operations

Find the edge.
Prove it on paper.
Then fund it.

Systematic Polymarket trading. Every strategy starts as an experiment. Only the ones that survive paper trading get real capital.

// The Process
01
Experiment
Run strategies against live Polymarket data with zero capital at risk. Track every decision, every outcome.
PAPER MODE
02
Validate
Prove repeatability. If a strategy can't show consistent edge over hundreds of paper trades, it doesn't graduate.
BACKTEST
03
Fund
Deploy real capital only to proven strategies. Start small, scale with confidence. The edge is discipline.
LIVE CAPITAL

Strategy Candidates

Initial set of strategies to paper trade and evaluate.

Sum-to-One Arbitrage
Buy YES + NO when combined price drops below $1.00. Near risk-free, but requires speed and tight execution.
RISK Low
SPEED Critical
EDGE Thin
Mean Reversion
Markets overshoot on news, then revert. Capture the snapback by fading large moves in prediction markets.
RISK Medium
SPEED Minutes
EDGE Academic
Longshot Bias
Low-probability events are systematically overpriced. Sell overpriced tails and collect the premium.
RISK Medium
SPEED Days
EDGE Proven
Liquidity Provision
Market-make on low-volatility markets. Capture the bid-ask spread while managing inventory risk.
RISK Low
SPEED Continuous
EDGE Structural
$40M+
Extracted by bots (2024-25)
0.51%
Traders earning $1K+
2%
Platform fee per trade
$0.007
Gas cost per transaction

The edge isn't the strategy.
It's the process.

Most traders gamble on conviction. We test on paper, validate with data, and only risk capital on proven repeatable edges.

// paper first. always.